So, I just read an interesting paper by MIT professor William Wheaton who heads the MIT Center for Real Estate who takes the long view for housing. And while much of the data Professor Wheaton looked at was from 2009 back he seems to be right on point with his conclusion for 2010. Professor Wheaton looks the demographics against historical averages and forecasts that housing should increase to about 800,000 units in 2011 and then 1.0 million units in 2012 rising to 1.3 million in 2013 and 1.4 in 2014. Production at this level would be consistent with historical averages and the need to keep up with household formation.
Here is an interview from Professor Wheaton during the September of 2010 on MSNBC expressing his point of view.